Brazil’s economic complexity: a comparative analysis across global powers and the global south

As the world’s tenth-largest economy, Brazil has witnessed a marked and sustained decline in its economic complexity over the past three decades. This downward trajectory presents significant challenges to the country’s ambition of assuming a more influential role in global economic governance. Despite Brazil’s structural potential and geopolitical relevance, it continues to face considerable obstacles in its transition towards high-income status. This study addresses the following research question: How has Brazil’s economic complexity evolved in relation to major global powers and the Global South? What factors have led to the continuous decline in Brazil’s economic complexity? To explore this, we adopt a comparative methodology that examines Brazil’s economic trajectory alongside both leading global economies and prominent actors within the Global South. Using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as the principal analytical framework, the research identifies critical development gaps and strategic opportunities. Through case studies and cross-national comparisons, our findings demonstrate that, despite notable political efforts to enhance Brazil’s economic complexity, the country has yet to establish the necessary conditions to reverse its long-standing decline. Brazil remains in an intermediate position, lacking the technological sophistication and export diversification that typify high-complexity economies. These insights underscore the urgent need for targeted industrial policies, innovation-led strategies, and institution reforms, providing policy guidance for Brazil to reposition itself within the global economic hierarchy and advance its development agenda.