TY - JOUR
T1 - Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
AU - Lourenço, José
AU - de Lima, Maricelia Maia
AU - Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
AU - Walker, Andrew
AU - Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
AU - Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian
AU - Lambert, Ben
AU - de Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques
AU - Pybus, Oliver G.
AU - Alcantara, Luiz C.J.
AU - Recker, Mario
N1 - Funding Information:
We are most grateful to Wanderson Klebeler de Oliveira, Livia Carla Vinhal, Mariana Pastorello Ver-otti, Giovanini Evelim Coelho and Claudio Maierovitch Pessanha Henrique from the Brazilian Ministry of Health for providing epidemiological data regarding Zika virus notified cases in Brazil. MML and EMC curated the Zika virus notified cases in Feira de Santana. JL and ASW received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ 2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement no. 268904 – DIVERSITY. MR was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship. The European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement no. 614725-PATHPHYLODYN funded OP. MUGK’s contribution was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program-2 PREDICT-2 (Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-A-14–00102). CJVA was supported by a fellowship from the Labex EpiGenMed, via the National Research Agency, Program for Future Investment and University of Montpellier [ANR-10-LA-12–01]. BL received funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) in the UK. NRF was supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant number 204311/Z/16/Z). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© Lourenço et al.
PY - 2017/9/9
Y1 - 2017/9/9
N2 - The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
AB - The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032968014&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.7554/eLife.29820
DO - 10.7554/eLife.29820
M3 - Article
C2 - 28887877
AN - SCOPUS:85032968014
SN - 2050-084X
VL - 6
JO - eLife
JF - eLife
M1 - e29820
ER -
