TY - JOUR
T1 - Epidemiology of the Zika virus outbreak in the Cabo Verde Islands, West Africa
AU - Lourenço, José
AU - de Lourdes Monteiro, Maria
AU - Valdez, Tomás
AU - Monteiro Rodrigues, Júlio
AU - Pybus, Oliver
AU - Rodrigues Faria, Nuno
PY - 2018/3/15
Y1 - 2018/3/15
N2 - INTRODUCTION: The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the island nation of Cabo Verde was of unprecedented magnitude in Africa and the first to be associated with microcephaly in the continent. METHODS: Using a simple mathematical framework we present a first epidemiological assessment of attack and observation rates from 7,580 ZIKV notified cases and 18 microcephaly reports between July 2015 and May 2016. RESULTS: In line with observations from the Americas and elsewhere, the single-wave Cabo Verdean ZIKV epidemic was characterized by a basic reproductive number of 1.85 (95% CI, 1.5 - 2.2), with overall the attack rate of 51.1% (range 42.1 - 61.1) and observation rate of 2.7% (range 2.29 - 3.33). CONCLUSION: Current herd-immunity may not be sufficient to prevent future small-to-medium epidemics in Cabo Verde. Together with a small observation rate, these results highlight the need for rapid and integrated epidemiological, molecular and genomic surveillance to tackle forthcoming outbreaks of ZIKV and other arboviruses.
AB - INTRODUCTION: The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the island nation of Cabo Verde was of unprecedented magnitude in Africa and the first to be associated with microcephaly in the continent. METHODS: Using a simple mathematical framework we present a first epidemiological assessment of attack and observation rates from 7,580 ZIKV notified cases and 18 microcephaly reports between July 2015 and May 2016. RESULTS: In line with observations from the Americas and elsewhere, the single-wave Cabo Verdean ZIKV epidemic was characterized by a basic reproductive number of 1.85 (95% CI, 1.5 - 2.2), with overall the attack rate of 51.1% (range 42.1 - 61.1) and observation rate of 2.7% (range 2.29 - 3.33). CONCLUSION: Current herd-immunity may not be sufficient to prevent future small-to-medium epidemics in Cabo Verde. Together with a small observation rate, these results highlight the need for rapid and integrated epidemiological, molecular and genomic surveillance to tackle forthcoming outbreaks of ZIKV and other arboviruses.
U2 - 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.19433b1e4d007451c691f138e1e67e8c
DO - 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.19433b1e4d007451c691f138e1e67e8c
M3 - Article
C2 - 29637009
SN - 2157-3999
VL - 10
JO - PLoS Currents
JF - PLoS Currents
ER -
