Karmic forecasts: the role of justice in forecasts about self and others

Three studies show that people make karmic forecasts, expecting good things to come to those who perform good deeds, and predicting bad outcomes for wrongdoers. However, these justice-based forecasts only apply to others; when making forecasts about themselves, people tend to make optimistic predictions, regardless of whether they consider good or bad things that they did. This pattern emerged for both forecasts about the likelihood of experiencing positive versus negative events, as well as affective forecasts about how people will feel upon experiencing such events. Thus, there is a double standard for making forecasts about self versus others, with justice being a more fundamental motive in forecasts about others, and wishful thinking being a more fundamental motive in forecasts about the self. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)