Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market

Francesco Pinotti*, Lisa Kohnle, José Lourenço, Sunetra Gupta, Md Ahasanul Hoque, Rashed Mahmud, Paritosh Biswas, Dirk Pfeiffer, Guillaume Fournié

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
13 Downloads

Abstract

H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major concern for the poultry sector and human health in countries where this subtype is endemic. By fitting a model simulating H9N2 AIV transmission to data from a field experiment, we characterise the epidemiology of the virus in a live bird market in Bangladesh. Many supplied birds arrive already exposed to H9N2 AIVs, resulting in many broiler chickens entering the market as infected, and many indigenous backyard chickens entering with pre-existing immunity. Most susceptible chickens become infected within one day spent at the market, owing to high levels of viral transmission within market and short latent periods, as brief as 5.3 hours. Although H9N2 AIV transmission can be substantially reduced under moderate levels of cleaning and disinfection, effective risk mitigation also requires a range of additional interventions targeting markets and other nodes along the poultry production and distribution network.

Original languageEnglish
Article number3494
Number of pages10
JournalNature Communications
Volume15
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2024

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