Simulating the risk of investment in human capital

Joop Hartog*, Hans Van Ophem, Simona Maria Bajdechi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The risk of investment in schooling has largely been ignored. We mimic the investment decision facing a student and simulate risky earnings profiles in alternative options, with parameters taken from the very limited evidence. The distribution of rates of return appears positively skewed. Our best estimate of ex ante risk in university education is a coefficient of variation of about 0.3, comparable with that in a randomly selected financial portfolio with some 30 stocks. With risk attitudes varying by parental background, this may be relevant for differences in schooling participation rates. Allowing for stochastic components in earnings also markedly affects expected returns.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)259-275
Number of pages17
JournalEducation Economics
Volume15
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2007
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Earnings dispersion
  • Education
  • Return
  • Risk

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