The emerging predominant party systems in Angola (2008-2017)

The end of the armed conflict in 2002, following the death in combat of the leader of the UNITA (NationalUnion for the Total Independence of Angola), Jonas Savimbi, allowed the process of transition to democracybegun in 1991 to be resumed (signing of the peace accords of Bicesse) and interrupted with the rekindling ofthe 1992 post-electoral war. Thus, in 2008, the second legislative elections were held, which were won bythe MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola), with a qualified majority of 81.64% of thevotes cast corresponding to 191 parliamentary mandates of the 220; in 2012, the third elections took placeand the MPLA once again won with a qualified majority of 71.8% of the votes cast, corresponding to 175parliamentary seats out of 220; in August 2017, the Wednesdays were held, again won by the MPLA with aqualified majority of 61.1% of the votes cast, corresponding to 150 parliamentary terms out of 220. Theseresults allow us to visualize the emergence of a predominant party system in Angola (2008 -2017), with adecreasing trend.The dominance of the arena of political competition by the MPLA is the result of a combination of multiplefactors, with emphasis on the incomplete separation between the party and the state; the imbalance in thearena of political competition, especially the unequal access to extra-budgetary resources, national publicmedia and the disproportionality of provincial constituencies. Finally, the consistency of the dominant votingtrend in the MPLA, regardless of ethnic, economic, political and sociodemographic considerations, allowsadmitting the possibility of consolidating the predominant party system in Angola, in future elections.Electoral polls closer to the electoral period allow for fine-tuning the forecasting mechanism.