A dinâmica entre exportação e produtividade no setor vinícola português no período de 2019 a 2023

André Guerra da Costa (Student)

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between exports and productivity in the Portuguese wine sector, aiming to clarify the direction of causality between these two variables. The central research question is whether Portuguese wine companies export because they are more productive (self-selection) or become more productive as a result of exporting (learning-by-exporting). To address this, a quantitative methodology was employed, using panel data from 409 firms between 2019 and 2023. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was estimated using the Levinsohn & Petrin (2003) method, and a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model was applied, complemented by Granger causality tests. The results show that productivity positively influences the export rate, supporting the self-selection theory, which argues that only more efficient firms can overcome the fixed costs of internationalization. However, no significant short-term impact of exports on productivity was found, challenging part of the literature on the learning-by-exporting effect. This study contributes to the empirical understanding of the international competitiveness of Portuguese wine SMEs, using recent data and a robust methodological approach. It adds value by highlighting that productivity improvements should precede internationalization. For stakeholders—such as business owners, industry associations, and policymakers—the findings offer practical guidance for designing more effective strategies and policies that foster sustainable internationalization in the wine sector.