A forward-looking analysis on Autonomous Delivery Vehicles and their impact on the German Grocery Retail Industry

Abstract

The steady growth of grocery e-commerce, the associated logistical last mile challenges as well as increasing delivery expectations of consumers, give rise to new market opportunities for last mile delivery service providers. Autonomous delivery vehicles (ADVs) such as drones and delivery robots are potential disruptors with their ability to improve operational efficiency in the last stage of delivery. Focusing on Germany, this dissertation explores the impact of ADVs on the grocery retail industry and illustrates potential future industry developments until 2030by applying a scenario building process. The impact of ADVs on the industry was observed through a use case analysis that identified eight promising application areas. Further estimations regarding each use cases’ market potential and last mile delivery costs as well as the complementation from a consumer viewpoint enabled an analysis from different perspectives. While it is expected that technology-wise both drones and delivery robots will reach their needed intelligence making it a safe delivery option in ten years, the potential of drones is assessed to be lower in grocery retailing. This due to their limited payload capacity and remaining insufficient legal infrastructure for widespread deployment in urban areas. While this study illustrates that grocers should not invest in their fleet of ADVs, with the strategic intentions of ADV sellers to establish promising “on-demand” marketplace platforms, a high potential for cost reduction for grocers remains.

Date of Award	29 Apr 2021
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Peter V. Rajsingh (Supervisor) & André de Almeida Pinho (Co-Supervisor)