Aging workforces and technological change

: insights from Portugal’s labor market

Abstract

The shift in the structure of the labor force is affecting workers’ productivity and firms’ decisions. Can technology postpone the tipping point, avoiding an early downward inflection of productivity? This thesis examines the relationship between aging workforces, technological intensity, and productivity. It extends traditional analyses of productivity and aging by incorporating the dimension of technology intensity, providing a more granular understanding of how these elements interact across different sectors and age groups, with a focus on effects within firms. Using detailed firm-worker-technology data, it finds that in high technology-intensive firms, productivity increases with age, while in low-intensity firms, the age-productivity profile is flatter. It also finds that ICT training can have a role. These findings are particularly policy-relevant, suggesting that policy actions focused on training and technology can postpone the tipping point. While wage-setting norms may imply that wages continue to increase with age, worker productivity may not. However, technology and training can delay this tipping point, avoiding an early decline in productivity.

Date of Award	2 Jul 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Isabel Horta Correia (Supervisor) & Joana Silva (Co-Supervisor)