Choosing a minister in Portugal
: the factors that determined ministerial selection in Prime Minister’s António Costa first government in 2015

  • Carlos Daniel Casais Martins (Student)

Student thesis: Master's Thesis


This dissertation discusses and analyzes the principal-agent theory fundamentals in ministerial selection and the factors that may have influenced António Costa, the Portuguese Prime Minister, in the selection process for his first government, in 2015. Using a dataset comprised of 40 individuals, from which 17 are the ministers who were selected and 23 are people appointed by the media and political commentators, we analyze which factors had the most influence in the probability of being selected for a ministerial position. The observations were analyzed and discussed, firstly, by their distribution between selected and non selected group for each variable and, secondly, by the results of four probit regressions. The results suggest that being a former junior minister increases the probability of being selected as minister, as well as being male and having a higher academic degree, mainly a doctorate degree. Also, political experience in general has a positive impact in the probability of being selected.
Date of Award6 Jul 2023
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • Universidade Católica Portuguesa
SupervisorCarlos Eduardo Soares de Seixas (Supervisor)


  • Minister
  • Prime Minister
  • Selection
  • Government


  • Mestrado em Gestão

Cite this