Cognitive flexibility and its relation with forecasting

: the Ukrainian crise as a case study

Abstract

Does cognitive flexibility enhance forecasting abilities? Cognitive flexibility “is the human ability to adapt the cognitive processing strategies to face new and unexpected conditions in the environment” (Cañas, 2006, p. 296), and has already been proven to have a positive impact on decision-making (Cañas et al., 2003; Laureiro-Martínez et al., 2009; Laureiro-Martínez & Brusoni, 2018). I focused my research on forecasting abilities, using the war in Ukraine as astudy case. Participants had to first test their flexibility with the Cognitive Flexibility scale (Martin & Rubin, 1995) and then answer forecasting questions about the war. The sample consisted of 95 valid answers. The results of my analysis showed no correlation between cognitive flexibility and forecasting abilities. Nevertheless, I highlight several limitations of my work, which explain why these results should not be considered a definitive answer to this study’s question and why researchers should further explore this topic. Previous researchers have shown the advantages brought by cognitive flexibility, and I emphasize the importance of continuing to study this matter, in order to be able to teach, foster and enhance cognitive flexibility to reach a competitive advantage – if indeed these advantages are eventually proved.

Date of Award	26 Oct 2022
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Cristina Mendonça (Supervisor)