Concetualização de um modelo de indexação da volatilidade do preço das matérias-primas ao preço do produto final na grande distribuição

Abstract

The relationships established in the milk supply chain, are in Portugal and other countries, characterized by the disparity of power and the size of the chain stakeholders, the environment becomes unstable and highly precarious in the sector. Particularly, producers, at the first level of the chain, are highly dependent on the price of agrifood raw materials, their main cost of production, which shows a high degree of volatility. Nowadays, the contracts signed between the retailers, the industry and the producer, typically, fix the producer price without addressing this question of volatility. This thesis seeks to assess the impact, for all stakeholders, of alternative contracts that seek to take in account the volatility of price agrifood raw materials. Thus, in order to study the dynamics of the market, three prevision models were estimated, in which the impact of price variation was analysed, from the initial moment of the chain, at the producer, until the final moment, at the demand for milk by final consumer. With the estimated results, proceed with the construction of three revenue scenarios contracts: i) the first, related to the indexation of the price of agrifood raw materials to the producer price; ii) the second, an adaptation of a Tesco contract; iii) the third, related with the formation of a fixed price without taking into account the indexation problem; The main results of the study indicate that there is symmetry in price transmission in the milk supply chain and the demand for milk is inelastic. In scenario analysis, the contract indexed to the stock exchange of raw materials would be fairer for all stakeholders in the supply chain. Protecting the producer from instability raw materials market and equity with the pass-through of raw material costs through the entire value chain.

Date of Award	17 Jul 2017
Original language	Portuguese
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Ricardo Ribeiro (Supervisor)