Credit lending in Portugal
: link between the levels of non performing loans with the Portuguese economy

  • Rita Lisboa Padrão (Student)

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

Abstract

This thesis evaluates how the credit lending market in Portugal, and more specifically the level of non performing loans, is affected by selected variables – unemployment rate variation, Euribor, spread in housing and consumer credit and GDP variation – and also by two dummy variables: (i) the Lehman Brothers Investment Bank bankruptcy (September 2008) and (ii) the implementation of the Economic Adjustment Programme in Portugal (May 2011). The impact of the above is assessed through OLS regression models. For the housing credit, this dissertation is based on Alves and Ribeiro (2011) and extends it to an ulterior sample period, but only partly confirms their results. It then applies a similar methodology for the consumer credit is a new designed model. Our results suggest that defaults were mainly a reflection of the dummies varibales, being the Lehman Brothers a higher influence in Portugal than the Financial Programme of Troika, both in the housing and consumer credit. The unemployment rate revealed to have a very high explanatory power in the non performing levels in the consumer credit. The GDP was the variable with less explanatory power both in the housing and the consumer credit.
Date of Award20 Jul 2016
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • Universidade Católica Portuguesa
SupervisorRicardo Reis (Supervisor)

Keywords

  • Non performing loans
  • Housing credit
  • Consumer credit

Designation

  • Mestrado em Gestão: Programa Internacional

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