Demand forecasting for perishable products
: a consumer behaviour perspective

  • Matteo Samuele Andrea Vonlaufen (Student)

Student thesis: Master's Thesis


Demand for fresh and healthy products has increased significantly in recent years. Such products are categorized as perishable and are easily thrown away when not sold. Despite improvements in technology, demand forecasting at the food retailer level is still based ontraditional practices, providing unsatisfying results and leading to consequent food waste. The aim of this study is to provide, through a quantitative survey, insights regarding the effects ofconsumer behaviours in demand forecasting for perishable products. The research analyses how consumer food waste sensibility and awareness affect the propensity to shop substitutes,their response to products’ appearance, the expiration label system, and how the size andfrequency of grocery shopping affect the propensity to buy substitutes.The results showed an overall awareness and willingness to act with regard to food wasterelated problems. The need for more awareness of products about to be wasted in-store was present as well as consumers' propensity to buy similar products when the preferred product was not present on the shelves. Less food waste sensible consumers were less willing tosubstitute compared to consumers that were more sensible to food waste. Consumers' misconception concerning labels’ standards was found and no differences regarding how longproducts were kept past the expiration date, between more and less label standardknowledgeable consumers was discovered. Products are kept by both groups for a shorterperiod compared to what experts suggest. Lastly, consumers that only shop for themselves,showed a lower propensity to buy substitutes.
Date of Award20 Oct 2021
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • Universidade Católica Portuguesa
SupervisorHenry Clavijo (Supervisor)


  • Consumer behaviour
  • Perishable products
  • Demand forecasting
  • Food waste
  • Products’ substitution
  • Expiration label standard
  • Product’s appearance
  • Food retailer
  • Technology
  • Artificial intelligence


  • Mestrado em Gestão e Administração de Empresas

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