Equity valuation

: Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA

Abstract

The inseparability between healthcare and the economy became evident with the emergence of COVID-19. Words as uncertainty, pandemic, lockdown, have become part of our everyday life, directly affecting the healthcare facilities and services industry, which is adapting to a new reality whose endpoint is the epidemicity or endemicity of this virus. Therefore, this Dissertation aims to analyse the value of Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA based on different valuation models in order to form an investment decision. Factors such as the unfolding of vaccination rates, the appearance of new variants, the impact of supply-chains disruptions, and the generalincrease in prices were considered. Thus, the valuation was based on three methods: DCF, relative sum-of-the-parts valuation, and a relative valuation using a single peer group for Fresenius as a whole. Considering the different macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, and attributing the same preponderance to the different methods used, the final target price of the company is €41.73, which translates into an upside potential of 17.9% against the closing price of €35.40 on 31st December, 2021, thus reflecting a buy recommendation. The sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation corroborated these values, indicating a greater potential upside. Finally, a comparison of the results with the valuation methods followed by Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley, and correspondent target prices, was carried out.

Date of Award	28 Apr 2022
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	José Carlos Tudela Martins (Supervisor)