Equity valuation

: Moncler S.p.A.

Abstract

This dissertation presents an equity valuation of Moncler S.p.A., a global leader in the luxury fashion industry. The analysis is based on an intrinsic valuation framework using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, supported by detailed forecasts of sales, operating expenses, capital expenditures, and working capital. Terminal Value (TV) was estimated using both the perpetuity growth method and an exit multiple based on peer EV/EBITDA, complemented by sensitivity and Monte Carlo simulations to assess robustness. A relative valuation was also performed, applying EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, and P/E multiples of a carefully selected peer group. Results show that DCF-derived values range between €35-€42 per share depending on assumptions, while multiples analysis supports a comparable range, though EV/Sales was excluded due to Moncler’s superior margins. The weighted outcome suggests a fair value of €39.99 per share, around 17% below the market price on the valuation date, leading to a slight Sell recommendation. A comparison with AlphaValue’s professional report highlights differences in assumptions, particularly regarding growth projections, WACC, and peer selection, which explain their higher €57 per share estimate.

Date of Award	15 Oct 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	José Carlos Tudela Martins (Supervisor)