Equity valuation

: On Holding AG

Abstract

On Holding AG, further referred to as "On", has established itself as a fast growing designer and manufacturer of performance footwear and apparel, characterised by its expanding global presence and its strong reputation for innovation and premium brand equity. Despite the recent macroeconomic volatility, which has been shaped by the pandemic, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, On has continued to grow its market share and consumer base. Equity markets, however, remain volatile, reflecting both sector-wide corrections and concerns over growth sustainability. The objective of this dissertation is twofold: firstly, to determine On's target share price as of 30 June and secondly, to provide an investment recommendation grounded in intrinsic valuation. The analysis integrates On's industry positioning, macroeconomic outlook, and company-specific fundamentals into a valuation framework. The target equity value per share was estimated at USD 62.8 using a WACC-based discounted cash flow (DCF) approach, implying an upside potential of 38%. The robustness of this estimate was tested through sensitivity analysis and benchmarked against sell-side projections. Recognizing uncertainties and execution risks, the results support a Buy recommendation.

Date of Award	15 Oct 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	José Carlos Tudela Martins (Supervisor)