Equity valuation of Allgeier SE

Abstract

This thesis delivers a comprehensive commercial, financial, and valuation assessment of Allgeier SE, a German IT Services provider. The core analysis focuses on valuing Allgeier through two intrinsic valuation techniques, namely the traditional DCF method and the APV approach, complemented by a relative valuation, performed as of April 30, 2025. The valuation yields a blended final target share price of EUR 24.73, which indicates a 21.83% premium over Allgeier’s share price on April 30, 2025. The valuation assumes Allgeier leverages its established position in the German IT Services market, benefitting from the ongoing digitalization trend and a strategic shift to higher-margin services. The ability to attract IT talent and cost control in a competitive landscape remain crucial for Allgeier’s long-term success. The DACH IT Services market forecast supports future revenue growth, as recovery from recent macroeconomic headwinds and delayed IT investments is anticipated. The analysis is compared with Berenberg’s equity report, which proposes a slightly higher target price of EUR 22.00 based on a DCF model with perpetuity growth. The deviation in the perpetuity growth approaches reflects more conservative assumptions in this dissertation, resulting in a marginally lower valuation, yet still endorsing the BUY recommendation. In conclusion, this analysis suggests that the market currently undervalues Allgeier’s stock due to the multiple ongoing headwinds. However, the company’s positive long-term outlook highlights significant upward potential for investors.

Date of Award	23 Jun 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	José Carlos Tudela Martins (Supervisor)