Equity valuation TOMRA Systems ASA

Abstract

This thesis presents a valuation of TOMRA Systems ASA, a global leader in reverse vending and sensor-based sorting solutions supporting circular-economy infrastructure. The analysis relies on information as of 30.06.2025 with a valuation date of 31.12.2025. The core methodology applies a discounted cash flow (DCF) to free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), complemented by adjusted present value (APV) and relative valuation using forward-looking multiples. The valuation assumes growth through 2030, driven by structural trends such as the expansion of deposit-return schemes (DRS), stricter resource-efficiency mandates, and rising demand for high performance sorting technologies. A key catalyst is the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), which imposes binding recycling and reuse targets for 2025 and 2030, supporting sustained investment in TOMRA’s collection and sorting infrastructure across Europe. The model assumes a steady state beyond 2030, with capital expenditures aligned with depreciation and normalized working capital. Built in EUR (TOMRA’s reporting currency), equity value per share is presented in NOK using forward exchange rates. Scenario and sensitivity analyses test the robustness of results. The base-case target price is NOK 156.48 (vs. NOK 153.8 as of 01.07.2025), leading to a ‘Hold’ recommendation, consistent with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Date of Award	17 Oct 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	José Carlos Tudela Martins (Supervisor)