Estratégia de marketing da Onevetgroup

: modelo logit como ferramenta de previsão da procura

Abstract

In recent years several discrete choice models have been developed to try to describe consumer’s behavior in markets of differentiated product. These models are nowadays used by many companies to estimate demand, and thus to define strategies that enable them to gain competitive advantage. In the context of this dissertation, one type of discrete choice model was applied – the logit model – to estimate demand of differentiated products, namely external deworming for dogs, after the implementation of a marketing campaign, in the different units of the Onevetgroup company. The data required to consistently estimate the logit model consists of the following variables: quantities and prices of external deworming sold between December 2013 and October 2015, products characteristics, and the potential market. Then, using least squares regression of lnsj – lns0 in function of prices and products characteristics, it was possible to determine the coefficients to estimate the quantity of external deworming sold in CV Algés in October 2015. During this period, the results demonstrated that the deworming sales estimations were close to reality. The quality of the estimations was satisfying, which allowed measuring the impact of a marketing campaign on the company's sales. We concluded that this campaign would lead to an increase in sales, thereby generating increases in revenue (about 28 %). However, we need to replicate this methodology in the other units of Onevetgroup to affirm, with a higher degree of certainty, that this is an appropriate forecast model for the company.

Date of Award	31 Oct 2016
Original language	Portuguese
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Ricardo Ribeiro (Supervisor)