Future-proofing real estate

: flood risk assessment and strategic decision-making in the case of BPI GA

Abstract

This dissertation presents a computational model to assess future flood risks for BPI Gestão de Ativos (BPI GA) real estate portfolio in Portugal. The proposed methodology incorporates multiple data sources to support decision-making. Including asset details from BPI GA portfolio, flood hazard data from aqueduct and depth-damage curves from JRC. The model predicts monetary damages up to 2080 under various climate scenarios. The findings highlight the temporal and spatial variability of flood impacts, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment planning. By quantifying Value at Risk (VaR) and visualizing risk hotspots, this study aids in identifying high-risk areas and optimizing future investments. The results underscore the necessity of incorporating climate projections into real estate management to ensure resilience against evolving flood hazards.

Date of Award	11 Feb 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Miguel de Oliveiros Vieira de Albergaria e Castro Nogueira (Supervisor)