Impacto da pandemia e guerra nos determinantes de estrutura de capitais

: análise das empresas portuguesas

Abstract

Through the revolutionary study by Modigliani & Miller (1958), which gave us a new perspective on understanding the capital structure of companies, doors were opened to one of the central themes of corporate finance. Based on this study, numerous models and theories have been developed. However, although there is no consensus on which theory best explains companies' financing decisions, the most widely accepted theories are the Trade-Off Theory and the Pecking-Order Theory. This dissertation examines how global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have influenced the determinants of Portuguese companies' capital structures, as well as trying to understand which type of theory is most followed by the companies being analyzed. To achieve this goal, a sample of 93 224 Portuguese companies was used, with data extracted from the Iberian Balance Sheet Analysis System (SABI). The analysis was based on balanced panel data, divided into two periods: 2017-2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2021-2023 (post-pandemic). The main determinants analyzed include size, profitability, liquidity, asset structure, age, other tax benefits, risk and growth. The econometric model shows that the Pecking Order theory best explains the capital structure of Portuguese companies. In addition, the size determinant was the most affected in the face of the pandemic and war, and companies showed a greater preference for internal financing, which suggests more conservative behavior.

Date of Award	24 Mar 2025
Original language	Portuguese
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Ricardo Cunha (Supervisor)