Indra Sistemas (BME: IDR)

: equity valuation

Abstract

This thesis estimates the intrinsic value of Indra Sistemas S.A., a global technology and consulting company with dual exposure to the Aerospace & Defense and IT Consulting sectors. The valuation applies a weighted average of multiple methodologies4primarily Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Adjusted Present Value (APV) to capture operational value and tax shields, complemented by a Sumof-the-Parts (SOTP) approach to reflect Indra’s multi-segment profile. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to incorporate uncertainty and volatility, while trading multiples and precedent transactions provide market-based cross-checks. The analysis is based on assumptions aligned with academic literature and industry practice, integrating updated macroeconomic and sector-specific drivers. Results indicate a twelve-month target price of €47.0 per share, representing a 28.4% upside from the August 06th, 2025 closing price. The STRONG BUY recommendation is supported by robust backlog visibility, accelerating European defense spending, margin expansion in IT Consulting, and a strengthened capital structure. A comparative review against a recent Santander CIB equity report highlights differences in assumptions and methodology, underscoring how timing, market sentiment, and risk-free rate selection materially affect valuation outcomes.

Date of Award	17 Oct 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	José Carlos Tudela Martins (Supervisor)