Is the future of automotive green(ish)?

: a longitudinal patent analysis on the impact of regulation, technology and demand on different shades of green innovations in the automotive sector across OECD countries

Abstract

This thesis investigates the key determinants of eco-innovation within the automotive industry, specifically focusing on whether and to what extent the sector is transitioning from the existing Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technology paradigm to a paradigm based on Electric Vehicle (EV) technologies. Innovation is measured using patent data as a proxy, with paradigm-destroying innovations classified as "green" and paradigm-enhancing innovations as "greenish," based on patent classes. The analysis focuses on three major drivers of eco-innovation: regulation push/pull, technology push, and demand pull. The study employs a comprehensive quantitative approach based on a country-level panel dataset of 34 OECD countries from 2005 to 2021, developed specifically for the research, compiling data from several sources, including OECD, IEA, and OICA. Findings reveal that regulation push/pull factors, especially non-market mechanisms, and demand pull factors, significantly drive paradigm-destroying innovations. In contrast, technology push factors appear to foster innovations that enhance existing ICE technologies. The study highlights the need for integrated, clear and reliable policy frameworks, consumer and market incentives, and complementary R&D support to stimulate the shift toward the technological paradigm based on EV technology.

Date of Award	22 Oct 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Arash Rezazadeh (Supervisor) & René Bohnsack (Supervisor)