Níveis das reservas de caixa e crises financeiras

: evolução dos níveis das reservas de caixa nas empresas do S&P 500 antes, durante e após as crises do Subprime e da Covid-19

Abstract

Wars and geopolitical tensions heighten economic risk and increase fears of financial crises. In times of uncertainty, cash plays a central role, acting as a buffer against constraints and an immediate source of funding. This study aims to analyse the impact of financial crises on corporate cash holdings, compared to non-crisis years. For this purpose, a sample of non-financial firms from the S&P 500 index between 2004 and 2024 is used, with particular focus on the Subprime crisis (2007–2009) and the Covid-19 crisis (2020). Using panel data regression models and robustness tests, the hypothesis that cash holdings increase during crises is tested. The results partially support this hypothesis, revealing a positive and statistically significant impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate cash holdings. In the case of the Subprime crisis, the evidence is less robust, showing positive results in several specifications but lacking statistical significance in the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model. This difference may be due to the nature of each crisis and the type of policy response, with the Subprime crisis rooted in the financial sector and the pandemic crisis characterized by direct support to firms, particularly in terms of immediate liquidity. This study contributes to the literature by providing a comparative analysis of the two major crises of the 21st century — the Subprime crisis and the Covid-19 crisis — using updated data and seeking to address potential endogeneity issues. For managerial practice, the findings highlight the importance of prudent financial management and the strategic role of cash reserves as a risk mitigation tool in highly uncertain environments.

Date of Award	31 Oct 2025
Original language	Portuguese
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Aviner Manoel (Supervisor)