Navigating the Milei effect

: market implications of Argentina’s electoral shift

Abstract

This dissertation explores the impact of the 2023 Argentina Presidential Election on stock market dynamics, focusing on sector-specific reactions in Argentina and potential spillover effects across the main Latin and North American stock markets. Using an event study methodology, the research examines abnormal returns surrounding the election date, to identify significant changes in investor sentiment following the surprising victory. Findings reveal that Utilities, Industrials, Consumer Non-cyclicals, Real Estate and Consumer Cyclicals emerged as “relative winners”, while Basic Materials were “relative losers”. No evidence of regional spillover effects was found, suggesting the impact of the election was contained within Argentina. Nevertheless, the results show there are sector-specific reactions, either positive or negative, due to the perception of future pro-market policies and austerity expectations.

Date of Award	28 Jan 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Jörg Stahl (Supervisor)