Navigating uncertainty
: the effectiveness of scenario planning in pharmaceutical product launch

  • Aline Sarah Lüber (Student)

Student thesis: Master's Thesis


The successful development and launch of new drug products describe the core business of pharmaceutical companies, driving growth and making significant contributions to society. However, a considerable number of pharmaceutical product launches fall short of expectations, highlighting the need for effective strategies in this highly competitive landscape. Scenario planning as a strategic tool has long gained recognition in the industry, yet research on its impact on launch success remains limited. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the interplay between scenario planning and launch success in the pharmaceutical industry. Through a comprehensive review of relevant literature, this research provides valuable insights into risk and uncertainty in the industry as well as identifying critical success factors for pharmaceutical product launch. The qualitative content analysis of semi-structured interviews complements the theoretical discussion and enables a deep exploration of experts’ perceptions on and experiences with the strategic tool and pharmaceutical product launch in practice. The findings affirm the effectiveness of scenario planning in enhancing launch success, shedding light on its potential to mitigate risk and uncertainty in the industry. Furthermore, it offers best practices and practical recommendations to industry experts and launch leaders, empowering them to leverage scenario planning as a strategic tool in pharmaceutical product launch.
Date of Award26 Jan 2024
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • Universidade Católica Portuguesa
SupervisorDuarte Cardoso Ferreira (Supervisor)


  • Pharmaceutical industry
  • Pharmaceutical product launch
  • Scenario planning
  • Launch success
  • Strategic tools
  • Risk and uncertainty


  • Mestrado em Gestão e Administração de Empresas

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