O domínio decrescente do MPLA no sistema partidário em Angola (2008-2022)

Translated title of the thesis: The decreasing dominance of the MPLA in the Angolan party system (2008–2022)
  • Carlos Barnabé Upindi Pacatolo (Student)

Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis

Abstract

The theme of the thesis is “The Decreasing Dominance of the MPLA in the Angolan Party System (2008 – 2022)”. The focus of the analysis is the results of the four General Elections (2008, 2012, 2017 and 2022), won by the MPLA with a qualified majority of the votes cast and an absolute majority (2022), since in addition to being characterized by a decreasing trend (average variation of -14%), allow classifying the Angolan party system as Dominant. Thus, the objective of the analysis will be to identify the factors that influence the decreasing dominance of the MPLA, to understand whether this trend may represent the end of the dominance cycle, in the foreseeable future (2027 or 2032). The main hypothesis of the investigation is the following: the control of resources and public institutions relevant to the management of the electoral process by the MPLA allows it to unbalance the arena of electoral competition in its favor and win the elections, before polling day (Principal). In addition to this, other alternative hypotheses are considered, related to short-term factors, such as the transformation of unconventional political participation of Angolan youth into conventional participation; voters' approval of the Executive's economic and social performance; the level of cognitive awareness of Angolan voters; and a longer-term one, the feeling that Angolan voters share co-identities with the ruling party candidate. The investigation followed a multimethod research design, successively combining quantitative analysis (public opinion surveys, statistical treatment of survey data and election results) and qualitative analysis (document analysis, semi-structured interviews and content analysis). The literature distinguishes the contexts of electoral competition, according to the regimes: democratic – meaningful and fair elections, as the field of electoral competition is free, open, balanced and provides competing political parties with equal opportunities to appeal to voters; competitive authoritarians – significant and manifestly unfair elections, as the field of electoral competition is free, open and unbalanced in favor of the incumbent. For the African context, two explanations are added: authoritarian origin and legacy of the dominant party and the weakness and division of the opposition. Angola is situated in the context of competitive authoritarianism, with the MPLA's dominance in the party system being a consequence of the control it exercises over resources and public institutions (partisanship of the State) relevant to the imbalance of the electoral competition arena in its favor, of the actions political parties in opposition and voters' motivations for voting for him. The decrease in the MPLA's electoral dominance is associated with short-term factors, such as, for example, the electorate's perception of the new organization and electoral mobilization strategy of the opposition parties, especially UNITA - abandonment of the mobilization of "niches" of voters, for a “catch all party” mobilization; the cognitive awareness of voters - who tend to be more educated, younger and urban dwellers. Finally, the increase in these voters, driven by short-term factors, and their mobilization for conventional political participation, that is, to vote in an expressive way, has a high potential to jeopardize the dominance of the MPLA.
Date of Award8 Sept 2023
Original languagePortuguese
Awarding Institution
  • Universidade Católica Portuguesa
SupervisorManuel Braga da Cruz (Supervisor) & Elisabete Azevedo-Harman (Co-Supervisor)

Keywords

  • Predominant party
  • Decrease
  • Institutions and resources
  • Angola

Designation

  • Doutoramento em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais: Segurança e Defesa

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