O impacto dos determinantes socioeconómicos na taxa de ferilidade em Portugal e as suas implicações políticas

Henrique Luís de Séguier Calheiros da Rocha Moreira (Student)

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

Abstract

The downward trend in fertility in Portugal over recent decades presents social, demographic, and economic consequences. The aging of the population, changes in the economic landscape, and the capacity for production and innovation are potential consequences of this decline. This dissertation aims to analyse the socioeconomic determinants that impact the number of children in Portuguese families. To achieve the proposed results, an econometric model was developed, comprising variables from the various aforementioned areas, based on data collected in the Fertility Survey conducted by the Portuguese National Statistics Institute (INE) in 2019. The results of this study reveal that factors such as age, education level, and employment stability significantly influence the number of children. The inclusion of regional effects in the model estimation also allowed for conclusions to be drawn regarding the geographical distribution of fertility across Portugal. This research purpose is to contribute to the understanding of fertility in Portugal, aligning with both national and international literature dedicated to this topic, with the ultimate goal of suggesting policy measures to mitigate its consequences.