Orçamento e rolling forecast

: análise comparativa de utilidade como ferramentas de controlo de gestão

Abstract

Over time, criticism has emerged regarding the usefulness of the budget, arguing that it should be adapted or abandoned (Hansen et al., 2003). From these criticisms, it should be noted that this is a management tool that generates too many costs, time-consuming and with obsolete information, which fosters a management posture focused on command and control logics. On the other hand, it is argued that the budget enhances centralized decision-making and discourages the sharing of information, making the response to needs and changes in the environment to be too late, thus making it unsuitable in the face of dynamic and uncertain contexts of the environment (Hope and Fraser, 2003a). In this context, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the behavior and usefulness of a tool (rolling forecast) that has been pointed out in the literature as a way to counteract the static character of the traditional budget, in a context where the environment is extremely uncertain and dynamic, as is the case of the current COVID-19 pandemic. To answer the research question, this thesis uses the case study methodology. The collection of empirical evidence was carried out through three interviews with the CEO and the assistant to the management of an SME in the health sector (LineaMédica) and in the analysis of internal and public documents. The analysis of the case study suggests that the organization studied, despite having found some utility in the rolling forecast tool, having contributed to its adaptive capacity and response to the market opportunities that arose, in extremely dynamic and uncertain surroundings (resulting from the limitations of the pandemic), it is not an adequate substitute for traditional planning and control tools.

Date of Award	22 Jul 2021
Original language	Portuguese
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Luís Marques (Supervisor)