Reconciliation agreements and ceasefires as tactics to recapture land

: a study of the Syrian government’s political and military strategy

Abstract

The study examined the ceasefires and local reconciliation agreements in Syria, which were concluded between the years 2013 and 2018 as two main tactics that the Syrian government used to achieve its strategic goal, which is to restore the areas outside its control without making political concessions to the opposition. A sample was selected from the cities that conducted ceasefires and reconciliations, we provided through its information about the means used by the government forces to impose ceasefires and reconciliations, the terms of reconciliation, the local mediators, and the negotiating parties, considering the differences between agreements and analysis it according to region, negotiator, and the control authorities in the region. Also, we studied the impact of the military tactics of the Syrian government, in chronological order, on the positions of the active countries in the Syrian crisis on the one hand, and on the political negotiation tracks on the other hand. The study concluded that the reconciliation agreements were not a process of building peace from below, as the Syrian government and Russia claim, but rather agreements of surrender under military pressure. And predicted that it will leave far-reaching effects in Syria, including the rupture of the social fabric and the loss of national sovereignty in favour of foreign powers, in addition to the gathering of thousands of fighters opposed to the government in the remaining areas outside its control, which will contribute to the transformation of the Syrian crisis from a civil war to a protracted social conflict model.

Date of Award	25 Jul 2022
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	António Fontes Ramos (Supervisor)