Relevant factors for EU exports in ASEAN+3 countries and the case of Portugal

Abstract

China and ASEAN members as a whole are respectively the 2nd and the 3rd largest EU’s trading partners outside Europe. These markets are not simply relevant now, but also have great projection in near future: China multiplied by 6 its GDP per capita from year 2000, and ASEAN countries like Malaysia and Thailand increased it by approximately 45% in the last 5 years. Along this paper, the reasons behind some EU countries exporting more than others to ASEAN+3 countries are analyzed. The results of the gravity function show that having at least one national diplomatic mission and negotiating free trade agreements implies higher levels of exports; however, the euro currency doesn’t have a relevant impact. Other positive factors are current volume of imports and logistics development, as well as the capacity of the exporter to produce complex and innovative products; however, the size of the exporter is not a determinant aspect in terms of export performance. Additionally, the case of Portugal is specially studied. It is found that Portuguese export volumes follow import volumes, and that the country is mainly exporting to ASEAN+3 partners with high GDP and logistics performance. About this country, there is still large room for improvement regarding its trade deficit and its use of diplomatic and commercial links. This paper can help to justify EU diplomatic and trade bodies acting in a proactive way, as well as that investment in R&D and not cheap labor is the key to be a competitive exporter.

Date of Award	2015
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Ricardo Reis (Supervisor)