Scenario planning in the context of industry transformation

: identifying key drivers for the effective application in the German automotive industry

Abstract

This master dissertation examines the role and effectiveness of scenario planning as a strategic approach in the context of the profound transformation of the German automotive industry. The research aims to identify critical internal and external drivers as well as success factors for the effective application of scenario planning under uncertainty. Based on a theoretical framework and a qualitative analysis of twenty expert interviews from manufacturers, suppliers, associations and consultancies, a comprehensive understanding of the organizational, cultural, and strategic embedding is developed. The results show that the effectiveness of scenario planning strongly depends on its anchoring in top management, interdisciplinary collaboration, cultural openness, and the handling of regulatory, technological, and geopolitical uncertainties. Four developed future scenarios throughout the thesis illustrate different future pathways for the industry up to the year 2040 and serve as a basis for strategic action options. The thesis concludes with concrete recommendations for the institutional anchoring and iterative application of scenario planning. It underscores the potential of scenarios as a strategic operating system for actively shaping transformation.

Date of Award	27 Jun 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Duarte João Ferreira (Supervisor)