Strategic foresight and business model innovation

: a comparative case study of Kodak and Fujifilm

Abstract

This thesis examines legacy firms' responses to technological disruption by contrasting the capabilities of Kodak and Fujifilm to adapt during their transition from analog to digital imaging. Although both companies shared a leading role in photographic film technologies, they ended up with starkly different futures - Kodak went bankrupt in 2012, while Fujifilm reinvented itself as a diversified technology and healthcare company. Using a comparative case study method and drawing on interviews with executives and industry experts, as well as archival sources and financial reports, the study explored each firm's strategic trajectory through four strategic perspectives - Strategic Foresight, Resource-Based View, Dynamic Capabilities, and Business Model Innovation - to deconstruct the internal factors that shaped each firm’s ability to adapt. Fujifilm's transformative capacity benefited from its ability to institutionalize foresight, particularly in two ways: leveraging its core technological capabilities and steadily reconfiguring its business model. Kodak showed strategic inertia, weak foresight integration, and failed to move beyond superficial change in the form of symbolic transformation. This thesis contributes to the strategic management literature by showing that adapting successfully in an age of uncertainty is not just about recognizing technological shifts - it requires effective transformation through coherent leadership, governance, and internal systems. It provides real-world implications for firms operating in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments, especially those facing structural decline. Ultimately, it suggests that disruption can be a mechanism for strategic renewal - but only if organizations respond preemptively and decisively.

Date of Award	27 Jun 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Duarte Cardoso Ferreira (Supervisor)