The conflict over the Malvinas/Falklands

: perspectives for a renewed confrontation or a negotiated settlement

Abstract

“When does the fighting stop, how long does the effects of a war last? Until the guns cool down? Until the wounds, even the most horrible mutilations, heal? Until combatants are just a word, muttered like a prayer?” (Lorenz 2022; 1). Beyond the occasional parade or commemorative song, the lessons of the Falklands War seem to come down to the present day to remind us of an alarming possibility: armed hostilities exist as an alternative on the worlds dashboard. Far from being a problem of the past, the Malvinas/ Falklands War and territorial dispute as a broad compels us to rethink how (and if it’s possible) to prevent conflict. If crisis prevention requires a causal analysis, this paper advances on the hypothesis that there exist combinations of conditions –domestic, international and territorial- that could lead to a military confrontation on the islands. In order to test it, it develops a csQCA to identify the configurations that have led to military conflicts and negotiated settlements in the region and through a process tracing identifies how these evolved during the war of 1982. Finally, it resumes the main challenges that the Malvinas/ Falklands dispute is facing in our century and from a scientific approach what can one expect in the future. Given a context of globalization and multipolarity, the role of alliances becomes an interesting variable for other scholars to incorporate in subsequent analysis and the research as a whole an important step for policy makers to advance at the decision-making process.

Date of Award	18 Mar 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	António Fontes Ramos (Supervisor)