The future of the automotive industry

: how will energy transition unfold in Europe?

Abstract

The transportation sector is responsible for significant CO2 emissions in the world. To tackle this problem, governmental entities, organizations, and consumers have pushed the industry towards a phase of energy transition. The European Union announced that from 2035 on, internal combustion engine (ICE) cars would no longer be sold, which accelerated the transition. This change opens up a space that needs to be filled with greener technologies. Electric cars (both BEVs and FCEVs) are examples of emerging technologies. This thesis analyzes how different types of engines can fill the space left by ICE vehicles indifferent sectors of the automotive industry. BEVs and FCEVs are subject to limitations (confirmed by consumers) that may or may not be addressed depending on the behavior of industry stakeholders over the next 10 years. To analyze the consequences of uncertain behaviors of various stakeholders, a Scenario Planning tool (Davis, 1989) was used where the different behaviors gave rise to 3 scenarios. The base scenario was the most likely to happen where there is stable development in the automotive industry, and BEVs are the main solution for passenger cars while FCEVs dominate for heavy-duty transport and buses.

Date of Award	25 Jan 2023
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Peter V. Rajsingh (Supervisor)