The impact of rating on consumers saving decisions

Abstract

This study aims to empirically analyze the impact of the rating given by the rating agency Moody’s in the choice of the consumer in Portugal, utilizing the data of nine banks during the period of 2007 to 2014. The chosen banks were: Banco Popular, Banco Português de Investimento, Banco Espírito Santo, Banif, Caixa Geral de Depósitos, Millennium BCP, Montepio, Montepio, Novo Banco and Santander Totta. In this analyze I used the interest rate and other observable characteristic like the rating, the age of banks, the number of branches, the stock market return and the yields of government bonds to explain the consumer decisions. The model used in this thesis is the nested multinomial logit and for the possibility of this estimation was required to calculate the market share of the market, find instruments for the model like the operational costs per deposits and the loans interest rate, and divide the banks in segments. The results suggest that the consumer is not sensitive to the rating and the interest rate.

Date of Award	17 Oct 2016
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Ricardo Ribeiro (Supervisor)