The path to market

: maturity for hydrogen in the energy industry an emergent phenomenon in a complex system

Abstract

This study is concerned with the path of hydrogen towards market-maturity. The energy industry is being subject to radical changes triggered by the need to mitigate impacts of climate change. Hydrogen can play an important role as an energy storage technology to overcome periods of renewable energy production intermittencies and thus help decarbonising energy intensive industries. This research suggests that one must consider the energy industry as a complex system and study interagent behaviours when assessing the path to market-maturity. The analysis deals with five different levers which reflect on the concept of experience curves and that could potentially accelerate the cost reduction path. Due to interdependencies between energy producers and policymakers, this study proposes a form of coordination whereby policymakers set guard rails to which private agents adapt. Furthermore, the analysis tries to describe the development path for market ramp-up. It expects an exponential growth because of mutually reinforcing feedback loops that are created when political and private actions are coordinated. Finally, the findings imply that hydrogen can become an emergent phenomenon radically changing the energy industry and other adjacent industries.

Date of Award	7 Jul 2023
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Peter V. Rajsingh (Supervisor)