The rise of hybrid war

: a study on the transformation of international security and the allied powers` future conflict environments

Abstract

This dissertation proposes an alternative general theory of ‘hybrid war’ based on quantum principles, reestablishing the link with Clausewitz and its remarkable trinity, while exploring the relationship between the emergence of hybrid war and the continuous weakening of the core pillars of modern western liberal democracies, the rupture of global stability and the restructure of the international system. To explore how the rise of hybrid war is related with the current transformations of the international system and forecasted future conflict environments, this dissertation opened by reviewing the evolution of warfare since the 18th century, exposing how the optimal conditions to the proliferation of hybrid warfare came to be. Subsequently, this dissertation proposes a general theory of hybrid war endorsing its Clausewitzian nature, further exploring its causes and origins, questioning if it leads to peace, and if peace leads to war, analysing the mechanics and experience of war, its character and reasons for inferior or superior performance. Past studies highlight that hybrid war is a fusion of conventional and unconventional characteristics, essentially targeting the resilience and cohesion of societies. This dissertation argues that the established ‘hybrid war’ understanding results from a misinterpretation based on an observation displacement error. This research work argues that what is assumed to be a ‘hybrid war’ is in fact the superposition and entanglement of conventional and unconventional activities in a quantum state, which upon observation collapses into a definite state, that can be measured but induces into interpretation errors due to its nature. Beyond strategic theory, this dissertation investigated the impact of emerging disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing in democracies and autocracies. By using economic models of game theory, this research evaluated how different regimes may change their cost signalling and bargaining methods when disruptive technologies are weaponized, adding extra complexity to an already challenging hybrid war. Finally this research concludes that to defeat a hybrid war, a state needs to develop a whole-of-society approach to establish a Total Defence framework. Such a programme would be responsible for the protection of national resilience and social cohesion, in the political, military, economic, cyber and cognitive domains. Succeeding in establishing a Total Defence framework would improve the immunity against a hybrid war continuous challenges and projections of power.

Date of Award	21 Mar 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Francisco Proença Garcia (Supervisor)