The unsubscribed

: the impact of price increases and advertising intensity on subscription cancellation intention in paid video streaming services

Abstract

As new customer growth in the video streaming market slows, providers increasingly focus on monetizing existing subscribers through price increases and advertising. However, both strategies risk provoking cancellations. This study investigates the effect of price increases and advertising intensity on users' intention to cancel paid streaming subscriptions, and which factor has a stronger influence. A 3x3 between-subjects experimental design was conducted (N = 422), simulating realistic subscription change scenarios via an online survey. Participants were randomly exposed to one of nine conditions varying by price levels and comparable advertising intensities. The quantitative data were analyzed using OLS regression and post hoc tests. Results show that both price increases and advertising significantly raise cancellation intentions. The impact of advertising appears to plateau, whereas price effects seem nonlinear, with threshold-driven increases in cancellations. Combined, the factors appear to interact subadditively. At moderate levels, advertising tends to dominate and makes small price changes insignificant. At high levels, both factors exert comparable effects on cancellation intentions. This study is among the first to empirically compare and combine these two monetization levers, especially in a paid video streaming context. It contributes to behavioral and platform economics by confirming saturation and loss prioritization effects. Practically, it highlights that introducing advertising in previously ad-free subscriptions carries higher cancellation risks than moderate price increases. Providers should communicate changes transparently, offer clear value, and segment offerings to retain customers.

Date of Award	14 Oct 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Supervisor	Filipa Serpa Pinto (Supervisor)