Equity risk premium predictability from cross-sectoral downturns

José Afonso Faias; Juan Arismendi Zambrano

doi:10.1093/rapstu/raac001

Equity risk premium predictability from cross-sectoral downturns

José Afonso Faias, Juan Arismendi Zambrano

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Resumo

We illustrate the role of left tail dependence-left tail mean (LTM)-in equity risk premium (ERP) predictability. LTM measures the average of pairwise left tail dependency among major equity sectors incorporating shocks imperceptible at the aggregate level. LTM, as well as the variance risk premium, significantly predicts the ERP in and out of sample, which is not the case with commonly used predictors. We find this predictability is the result of procyclical shocks' reversals in a stable business cycle. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on ERP predictability.

Idioma original	English
Páginas (de-até)	808-842
Número de páginas	35
Revista	Review of Asset Pricing Studies
Volume	12
Número de emissão	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raac001
Estado da publicação	Publicado - 1 set. 2022

Acesso ao documento

10.1093/rapstu/raac001Licença:

47732382Final published version, 558 KBLicença:

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/38219Licença:

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CUBE: Católica Lisbon Research Unit in Business and Economics
Machado, F. (PI), Aranda, A. M. (Investigador), Costa, A. I. D. A. (Investigador), Martins, A. P. (Investigador), Bernard, A. (Investigador), Fidalgo, A. (Investigador), Reis, C. (Investigador), Abecassis-Moedas, C. (Investigador), Santos, C. (Investigador), Tran, D. (Investigador), Fernandes, D. (Investigador), Bonfim, D. (Investigador), Schliephake, E. (Investigador), Kalogirou, F. (Investigador), Reis, F. (Investigador), Santos, F. (Investigador), Machado, F. (Investigador), Sguera, F. (Investigador), Cerqueiro, G. (Investigador), Reis, H. (Investigador), Barreto, I. (Investigador), Silva, J. (Investigador), Salvado, J. C. (Investigador), Neves, J. C. D. (Investigador), Gijsbrechts, J. (Investigador), Stahl, J. (Investigador), Guedes, J. C. (Investigador), Faias, J. (Investigador), Wagner, L. (Investigador), Correia, I. (Investigador), Saldanha, M. F. (Investigador), Fontes, J. C. (Investigador), Modesto, L. (Investigador), Meira, M. (Investigador), Matos, M. G. D. (Investigador), Gouveia, M. (Investigador), Kozeniauskas, N. (Investigador), Bertani, N. (Investigador), Couzoff, P. (Investigador), Barroso, P. (Investigador), Encarnação, P. (Investigador), Raposo, P. (Investigador), Teles, P. (Investigador), Bastos, W. (Investigador), Bohnsack, R. (Investigador), Vale, R. C. D. (Investigador), Ferreira, R. (Investigador), Lloyd-Braga, T. (Investigador), Ramus, T. (Investigador), Colaço, V. H. (Investigador), Cavicchini, A. (Investigador), Parada, P. (Investigador), Pieters, R. (Investigador), Pinto, F. A. G. D. L. S. (Investigador), Colaço, V. H. (Investigador) & Venter, Z. (Investigador)
1/01/20 → 31/12/24
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Citação

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Equity risk premium predictability from cross-sectoral downturns

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CUBE: Católica Lisbon Research Unit in Business and Economics

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