Expectations, infections, and economic activity

Martin Eichenbaum; Miguel Godinho de Matos; Francisco Lima; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt

doi:10.1086/729449

Expectations, infections, and economic activity

Martin Eichenbaum, Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo^*, Mathias Trabandt

^*Autor correspondente para este trabalho

Resultado de pesquisa › revisão de pares

2 Citações (Scopus)

12 Transferências (Pure)

Resumo

This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the interrelated yet distinct ef- fects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro data set on consumption expenditures in Portugal. The estimated model accounts for the cross-sectional consumption response of individuals of different ages at a given time, as well as the time-series response of consumption of the young and old across the first three waves of Covid. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.

Idioma original	English
Páginas (de-até)	2571-2611
Número de páginas	41
Revista	Journal of Political Economy
Volume	132
Número de emissão	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1086/729449
Estado da publicação	Publicado - 1 ago. 2024

ODS da ONU

Este resultado contribui para o(s) seguinte(s) Objetivo(s) de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Acesso ao documento

10.1086/729449Licença:

89524824Final published version, 2,49 MBLicença:

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/45076Licença:

Outros arquivos e links

Link to publication in Scopus

CUBE: Católica Lisbon Research Unit in Business and Economics
Machado, F. (PI), Aranda, A. M. (Investigador), Costa, A. I. D. A. (Investigador), Martins, A. P. (Investigador), Bernard, A. (Investigador), Fidalgo, A. (Investigador), Reis, C. (Investigador), Abecassis-Moedas, C. (Investigador), Santos, C. (Investigador), Tran, D. (Investigador), Fernandes, D. (Investigador), Bonfim, D. (Investigador), Schliephake, E. (Investigador), Kalogirou, F. (Investigador), Reis, F. (Investigador), Santos, F. (Investigador), Machado, F. (Investigador), Sguera, F. (Investigador), Cerqueiro, G. (Investigador), Reis, H. (Investigador), Barreto, I. (Investigador), Silva, J. (Investigador), Salvado, J. C. (Investigador), Neves, J. C. D. (Investigador), Gijsbrechts, J. (Investigador), Stahl, J. (Investigador), Guedes, J. C. (Investigador), Faias, J. (Investigador), Wagner, L. (Investigador), Correia, I. (Investigador), Saldanha, M. F. (Investigador), Fontes, J. C. (Investigador), Modesto, L. (Investigador), Meira, M. (Investigador), Matos, M. G. D. (Investigador), Gouveia, M. (Investigador), Kozeniauskas, N. (Investigador), Bertani, N. (Investigador), Couzoff, P. (Investigador), Barroso, P. (Investigador), Encarnação, P. (Investigador), Raposo, P. (Investigador), Teles, P. (Investigador), Bastos, W. (Investigador), Bohnsack, R. (Investigador), Vale, R. C. D. (Investigador), Ferreira, R. (Investigador), Lloyd-Braga, T. (Investigador), Ramus, T. (Investigador), Colaço, V. H. (Investigador), Cavicchini, A. (Investigador), Parada, P. (Investigador), Pieters, R. (Investigador), Pinto, F. A. G. D. L. S. (Investigador), Colaço, V. H. (Investigador) & Venter, Z. (Investigador)
1/01/20 → 31/12/25
Projeto

How people respond to rare events
Eichenbaum, M., Matos, M. G. D., Lima, F., Rebelo, S. & Trabandt, M.
14/11/20
1 Contribuição de meios de comunicação
Imprensa/meios de comunicação

Citação

@article{8f7b6543e9fe4c0ea61e00c6f41f5bd9,

title = "Expectations, infections, and economic activity",

abstract = "This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the interrelated yet distinct ef- fects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro data set on consumption expenditures in Portugal. The estimated model accounts for the cross-sectional consumption response of individuals of different ages at a given time, as well as the time-series response of consumption of the young and old across the first three waves of Covid. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.",

keywords = "Epidemic, Macroeconomics, Consumption, Age, Health, Inequality, Recession, Bayesian estimation, Endemic",

author = "Martin Eichenbaum and Matos, {Miguel Godinho de} and Francisco Lima and Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The University of Chicago.",

year = "2024",

month = aug,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1086/729449",

language = "English",

volume = "132",

pages = "2571--2611",

journal = "Journal of Political Economy",

issn = "0022-3808",

publisher = "University of Chicago Press",

number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Expectations, infections, and economic activity

AU - Eichenbaum, Martin

AU - Matos, Miguel Godinho de

AU - Lima, Francisco

AU - Rebelo, Sergio

AU - Trabandt, Mathias

PY - 2024/8/1

Y1 - 2024/8/1

N2 - This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the interrelated yet distinct ef- fects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro data set on consumption expenditures in Portugal. The estimated model accounts for the cross-sectional consumption response of individuals of different ages at a given time, as well as the time-series response of consumption of the young and old across the first three waves of Covid. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.

AB - This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the interrelated yet distinct ef- fects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro data set on consumption expenditures in Portugal. The estimated model accounts for the cross-sectional consumption response of individuals of different ages at a given time, as well as the time-series response of consumption of the young and old across the first three waves of Covid. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.

KW - Epidemic

KW - Macroeconomics

KW - Consumption

KW - Age

KW - Health

KW - Inequality

KW - Recession

KW - Bayesian estimation

KW - Endemic

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85192207673&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1086/729449

DO - 10.1086/729449

M3 - Article

SN - 0022-3808

VL - 132

SP - 2571

EP - 2611

JO - Journal of Political Economy

JF - Journal of Political Economy

IS - 8

ER -

Expectations, infections, and economic activity

Resumo

ODS da ONU

Acesso ao documento

Outros arquivos e links

Impressão digital

Projetos

CUBE: Católica Lisbon Research Unit in Business and Economics

Imprensa/meios de comunicação

How people respond to rare events

Citação