Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries

Diogo Costa, Sven Rohleder, Kayvan Bozorgmehr*

*Autor correspondente para este trabalho

Resultado de pesquisarevisão de pares

1 Citação (Scopus)
2 Transferências (Pure)

Resumo

Purpose Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor – COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker – OxCGRT. Methods NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5–25, and C4-C6, weeks 35–52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). Results During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. Conclusion In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).
Idioma originalEnglish
Número do artigo2341
Número de páginas17
RevistaBMC Public Health
Volume24
Número de emissão1
DOIs
Estado da publicaçãoPublicado - 28 ago. 2024

Impressão digital

Mergulhe nos tópicos de investigação de “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries“. Em conjunto formam uma impressão digital única.

Citação